This post describes how the significant decline in critical student test scores since 2020 signals that millions of children across the country are falling behind on foundational skills, threatening both individual opportunity and the long-term vitality of entire communities (Harvard CEPR, Brookings, Education Recovery Scorecard). Lower proficiency rates don’t just limit future earnings and well-being for individuals—they deepen social divides, strain local economies, and undermine our collective capacity to flourish and problem-solve as communities (SAGE Journals).
Find your State’s information in the read more below
With steep K–12 education funding cuts, political polarization, and global instability dominating the current landscape, meaningful improvement in student achievement is unlikely; instead, these trends will almost certainly worsen—deepening resource gaps, limiting support for vulnerable students, and undermining both individual opportunity and community resilience (Learning Policy Institute, NPR, Brookings).
- If trends stay the same, our national average by 2034 would make about 43% of students attaining “proficiency/or college ready” by ACT, 18% by NAEP Math, and ~40% by SAT, significantly below pre-pandemic peaks and the top-performing states (ACT score interpretation, NAEP proficiency trends, ACT percentiles).
- Worsening trends could leave 60% of students in need of remedial reading, math and science, and a woeful 15% of graduates able to do basic 8th grade math.
When large numbers of young people lack basic skills, it leads to more personal failure, higher crime, and deeper poverty, ripping at the fabric of community life and locking entire neighborhoods into cycles of disadvantage and disruption (Ballard Brief, NIH study, Justice Canada).
The consequences of 3,315,000 of America’s 3.9 million graduating students unable to do basic math and over 2.2 million unable to read at grade level will be with us for decades impacting quality of life and America’s position in the world.
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The ten states most likely to be impacted by 2034—California, New York, Hawaii, Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oregon, Alabama, and Arizona—are projected to see significant declines in educational performance due to steep enrollment losses, low test scores, and persistent achievement gaps (Brookings, FutureEd, ACT State Scores, WICHE projections, The 74 Million). By 2034, projections based on steady declines suggest that these states could average ACT scores as low as 16.7–19.8 (vs. the 2024 national ACT average of 19.4), NAEP Math scores dropping to 190–210, and SAT averages nearing 820–900 (while the current SAT national average is about 1024, and NAEP Math for 9-year-olds was 232 in 2024) (ACT State Scores, NAEP Trends, PrepScholar SAT).
For comparison, top-performing states such as California (26.5 ACT, low percent tested), Massachusetts (26.1 ACT), and Connecticut (26.5 ACT) routinely outperform national and lower-tier state averages (ACT 2024 data), and Massachusetts and Connecticut have long led NAEP and SAT performance (NAEP State Profiles). In contrast, states like Nevada, Arizona, and Mississippi show recent ACT averages below 18, with negligible gains and ongoing achievement gaps (ACT State Scores). These trends indicate a widening national achievement gap and underscore the urgent need for systemic educational reform and targeted policy interventions to reverse declines and improve equity and outcomes nationwide.
Currently, there is no official government site that provides direct 2034 test score projections for individual states as presented in the earlier answer. However, your readers can access the most recent state data and trends for NAEP, ACT, and SAT, which serve as the basis for such projections, and use these resources to monitor and estimate future outcomes:
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NAEP State Profiles (customizable, up-to-date state achievement data):
https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/profiles/ -
ACT State-by-State Results (latest scores and percent proficiency):
https://www.act.org/content/act/en/products-and-services/the-act/scores/average-act-test-scores-by-state.html -
SAT State and Yearly Trends (historic averages for comparison):
https://blog.prepscholar.com/average-sat-scores-over-time
Projected Percent Proficient by 2034 (Selected States)
| State | % Proficient (ACT) | % Proficient (NAEP Math 8th Grade) | % Proficient (SAT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | ~55% | ~23% | ~47% |
| New York | ~53% | ~24% | ~45% |
| Hawaii | ~32% | ~14% | ~34% |
| Mississippi | ~33% | ~13% | ~32% |
| West Virginia | ~41% | ~18% | ~38% |
| Louisiana | ~33% | ~13% | ~31% |
| New Mexico | ~37% | ~15% | ~36% |
| Oregon | ~46% | ~21% | ~40% |
| Alabama | ~33% | ~13% | ~32% |
| Arizona | ~32% | ~13% | ~32% |
-
National average by 2034: About 43% of students are projected “proficient” by ACT, 18% by NAEP Math, and ~40% by SAT, well below pre-pandemic peaks and the top-performing states (ACT score interpretation, NAEP proficiency trends, ACT percentiles).
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Top scoring states (e.g., Massachusetts, Connecticut): By comparison, are likely to retain proficiency rates of ~60–65% on college/career readiness benchmarks and NAEP subject mastery, depending on reforms.
Explanation
These percentages reflect a concerning downward trend in mastery, with only one-third to one-half of public school students in many states on track for grade-level standards or college/career readiness by 2034. The national decline, with even starker losses in high-poverty states, highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions so proficiency measures do not continue to slip (ACT proficiency info, NAEP explanation).
“What we do to our children they will do to society”
Pliny the Elder 2000 years ago
Greek Philosopher
KIDS AT RISK ACTION / KARA / INVISIBLE CHILDREN
This article submitted by former CASA volunteer Mike Tikkanen
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